East Carolina — 2026 schedule & results record 3-4 · model's picks 5-2 so far
Proj rating 1.5 · SOS -6.4 · Mean wins 7.8 · Picked 10-2 · Vegas 7.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Alabama | away | L 10–48 | +28.25 ✗ | -15.7 | 18% | L ✓ |
East Carolina +28 · LOSS -30 |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | App State | home | L 24–27 | -6.5 ✗ | +12.0 | 75% | W ✗ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Old Dominion | away | W 20–17 | +2.5 ✓ | +2.5 | 57% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | North Carolina Central | home | W 42–9 | -37.5 ✗ | +32.1 | 97% | W ✓ | |
| 6 | Sat 10/10 | Rice | home | W 28–12 | -10 ✓ | +15.0 | 81% | W ✓ |
East Carolina -10 · WIN +29 |
| 7 | Thu 10/15 | UAB | away | L 17–30 | -5.25 ✗ | +9.8 | 72% | W ✗ |
UAB +5 · WIN +18 |
| 8 | Thu 10/22 | Memphis | away | L 34–41 | +10.5 ✓ | -3.4 | 42% | L ✓ |
East Carolina +10.5 · WIN +19 |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | Temple | home | — | -6 | +9.5 | 71% | W | |
| 10 | Fri 11/06 | South Florida | home | — | — | +1.1 | 52% | W | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Charlotte | away | — | — | +15.8 | 82% | W | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Army | away | — | — | +3.6 | 58% | W | |
| 13 | Fri 11/27 | Florida Atlantic | home | — | — | +9.4 | 72% | W |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.